Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6576bff37ae94c5cd4b56693d59c12c2cf76e82c3a7afad79d78ac8e0a5f85fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 33c | 594.54$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 42c | 568.58$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…9817backed No | 71c | 516.1$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 13c | 424.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…72c3backed No | 62c | 410$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…2900backed No | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 54c | 219.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…7b54backed Yes | 41c | 83.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…daf3backed Yes | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 29c | 69.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…b0afbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $184 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $192 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.