Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x913e5b3930887eaa37625c342fe2cd0104e5d5d8cc4403bdb30236132e3fd349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 7,165$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.92 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 70c | 3,722$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.32 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 58c | 2,995$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.22 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 31c | 2,618$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.94 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 36c | 2,551$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.78 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 36c | 2,071$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.74 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 45c | 1,582$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…c5afbacked No | 44c | 1,561$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 60c | 1,558$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 34c | 910$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.15 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 63c | 709$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.33 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 69c | 653.23$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 45c | 650$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 623.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 36c | 505.55$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…8912backed Yes | 59c | 479.91$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 414.72$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…eaffbacked Yes | 58c | 400.67$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…5e0bbacked No | 42c | 400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 65c | 381.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 38c | 343.79$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 35c | 323.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 39c | 316.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…a335backed Yes | 68c | 308.8$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…0e56backed Yes | 64c | 302.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 67c | 280$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 44c | 279.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 52c | 274.25$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 263.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Yes | 79c | 255.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 68c | 228.37$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed No | 29c | 215.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 207.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 40c | 205.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 31c | 205.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7efa…5b20backed No | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 37c | 157.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 69c | 154.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked No | 24c | 144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked No | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 51c | 128.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…b81ebacked Yes | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 58c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed No | 41c | 100.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…599dbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee93…62d9backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 42c | 96.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 92.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…66a2backed No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 54c | 83.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 38c | 79.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 69.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 70c | 67.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 64.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 31c | 61.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 31c | 60.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 57c | 60.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…b53bbacked No | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 68c | 48.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…d0e9backed Yes | 70c | 40.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 40c | 40.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 28c | 38.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes | 73c | 36.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 52c | 29.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…cc93backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 54c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 76c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $360 in February?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $413 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $435 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $450 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $480 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.