Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $360 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e9ee1651580f55851d9da849cab29692ec8ee9a9ac0f23e8695fe2b56cbb320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,413$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 9c | 870.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 642.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 74c | 536.6$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 15c | 489.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Yes | 28c | 416.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 120.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 109.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $360 in February?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $413 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $435 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $450 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $480 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.