Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $413 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35632f123dcf700d1998313e2bb870750364786bd574b4d15c2d765cd09476a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa575…ae59backed No | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd38…51eebacked No | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…ffd0backed No | 45c | 136$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa762…e231backed No | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3608…d928backed No | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…f2f9backed No | 45c | 134$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777a…2206backed No | 45c | 134$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…dbc4backed No | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…88f6backed No | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…e6d0backed No | 45c | 129$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d0…bc40backed No | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…217fbacked No | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…24b2backed Yes | 55c | 116$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…c7acbacked Yes | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ffa4backed Yes | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72b…8827backed Yes | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f1…f656backed Yes | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…5c55backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…e1f7backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…cca1backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…c680backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9c…d989backed Yes | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…2890backed Yes | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bf…64f7backed Yes | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c9…282fbacked Yes | 55c | 103$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…3bfdbacked Yes | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4353…88e8backed Yes | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Yes | 71c | 45.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $413 in February?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $360 in February?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $435 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $450 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $480 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.