Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa128b5010cf7c82f47b55829f515a038a3e63616e874a4254eaa36ff4c878a7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 69c | 5,818$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.53 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,088$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 1,608$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.07 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 72c | 1,480$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.16 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…744fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,480$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,300$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.7 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 74c | 962.16$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.45 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 28c | 779.49$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.42 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 35c | 724.3$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 39c | 636.72$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 8c | 631.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298a…15b9backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…82febacked Yes | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 5c | 520.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 465$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed No | 7c | 399.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.53 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…accbbacked Yes | 54c | 323.9$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 26c | 319.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…93ccbacked Yes | 31c | 256.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 28c | 252.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked Yes | 20c | 105.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f6…76e2backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…70cfbacked Yes | 62c | 34.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…bbb3backed Yes | 59c | 33.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 44c | 24.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…f84bbacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 50cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…7908backed Yes | 46c | 22.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.