Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d72cef92b06b2c19bbfad02e05ba08eaf065b85a61e16442d75923bf6acab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,756$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 5c | 4,464$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.59 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 5c | 1,897$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…d142backed Yes | 5c | 1,727$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9667backed Yes | 4c | 1,230$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 946.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…f2bebacked Yes | 5c | 816$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 765.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 683.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…db4bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…4122backed Yes | 14c | 281.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfc…f414backed Yes | 8c | 239.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.