Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5cdf1b4aa10dfb4a0def1dea3b7bb18ab9e48403eb86c0be20ad2bca0ef427e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 34c | 12,937$4,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,437.48 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…169fbacked Yes | 49c | 5,972$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…b127backed Yes | 66c | 2,365$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 61c | 2,326$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.1 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 73c | 2,201$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.29 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 35c | 1,931$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.06 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 19c | 1,604$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.84 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…99a3backed No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd800…c256backed Yes | 67c | 1,445$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…e28fbacked No | 17c | 1,060$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 6c | 901.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…0343backed Yes | 42c | 865$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…b459backed No | 6c | 807.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed No | 5c | 782.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes | 69c | 678.75$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.06 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 8c | 650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…decabacked No | 53c | 620$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 48c | 600$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ea…2ac2backed Yes | 75c | 590$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 12c | 584.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…e0efbacked No | 53c | 403.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed No | 59c | 378.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.32 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…e8c0backed No | 37c | 330.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…3581backed No | 6c | 312.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…da4abacked No | 6c | 185.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…7c51backed Yes | 49c | 177.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed No | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938f…caefbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…8f46backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…0425backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…6a82backed Yes | 78c | 138.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5aeabacked No | 42c | 124.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 12c | 121.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…9b56backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked No | 56c | 104.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…7e70backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…e49ebacked No | 33c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…51dfbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd083…d678backed Yes | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…8f4fbacked Yes | 66c | 62.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…e658backed Yes | 68c | 61.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…a7f8backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…183cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…594dbacked Yes | 67c | 44.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…d84cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…c682backed Yes | 67c | 28.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…bb98backed No | 43c | 27.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.