Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98bc2c08e787a4754d8d84b0227f77d29256b8f721bf059dc47336447ebe1d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 1c | 8,900$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…419fbacked No | 31c | 4,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 69c | 3,282$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.43 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed Yes | 69c | 2,485$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.94 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 30c | 2,036$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.19 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,433$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.74 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 31c | 1,342$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.79 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 18c | 1,337$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.11 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd800…c256backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed No | 16c | 966.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…decabacked No | 48c | 620$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…51dfbacked No | 33c | 339.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1967backed No | 10c | 173.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked Yes | 69c | 152.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…e99cbacked Yes | 74c | 148.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 27c | 72.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…6ac1backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…136dbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd083…d678backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1cbebacked Yes | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in June?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.