Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a09ff4d212b2d0033ec914bac41ea76cc0fb4dd62d9f2303d4d5d097cf2761a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $444,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 4c | 56,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.73 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 4c | 30,527$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.42 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 3c | 21,634$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.11 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…21a0backed Yes | 1c | 20,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 14,137$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 4c | 14,020$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.68 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 2c | 10,651$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.06 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…f7d6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 8,410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,896$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.5 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…7a07backed Yes | 2c | 5,652$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,551$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…eda7backed Yes | 0c | 4,374$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…d011backed Yes | 2c | 4,001$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,346$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.09 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 4c | 3,312$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e2…7893backed Yes | 9c | 3,223$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…7616backed Yes | 1c | 2,687$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,714$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422e…8a52backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8d9ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,628$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9667backed Yes | 3c | 1,125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa799…100fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…818fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 1c | 968.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a06…67f6backed Yes | 4c | 963.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…8d02backed Yes | 7c | 836.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…d142backed Yes | 4c | 825.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…537ebacked Yes | 4c | 632.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…06b7backed Yes | 6c | 597.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6134backed Yes | 5c | 547.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 4c | 498.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 258$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 5c | 208.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 7c | 185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0f…6906backed Yes | 6c | 183$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…3d33backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ef…56f0backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.