Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1d49664545460db0ba5e5e8b93cceb612fbc41bb771d2a301604e70b0961c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 17c | 13,765$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 16c | 3,238$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.05 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 14c | 1,977$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.51 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 17c | 1,837$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.67 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6797backed Yes | 57c | 1,410$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 42c | 1,379$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.37 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 63c | 1,341$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.06 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 24c | 1,334$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.61 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 79c | 996$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed No | 28c | 950$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 50c | 882.34$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 28c | 870.01$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.63 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 75c | 741.97$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 78c | 713.36$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.83 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 43c | 582.97$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.07 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 76c | 525.53$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 69c | 520.62$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed No | 10c | 424.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 413.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 401.29$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 10c | 392.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…c4bebacked Yes | 74c | 353$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 256.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked No | 33c | 214$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 16c | 200.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 200.1$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…31d7backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 55c | 177.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Yes | 67c | 173.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 8c | 168.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 17c | 165.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 45c | 148.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…c847backed Yes | 70c | 137$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 131.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 20c | 115.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9111…7ecabacked No | 21c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 102.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad0…d752backed No | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…fecdbacked No | 32c | 86.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 52c | 75.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 19c | 73.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 70.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…45bfbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 24c | 69.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 65.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed No | 34c | 62.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…073abacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…0c89backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.