Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524261cefd5c4af0a92c32f684c2189a700fcd5696d294db2735db95293dcb0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 995.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 22c | 932.97$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 10c | 652.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 523.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 436.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 20c | 425.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 7c | 407.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 360.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 290.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 264.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 6c | 257.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 41c | 251.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 37c | 243.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 242.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 197.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 186.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…c3c4backed Yes | 45c | 172.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 9c | 151.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 22c | 148.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 16c | 147.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 16c | 134.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 128.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 19c | 124.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 120.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 119.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 10c | 110.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed Yes | 9c | 110.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 108.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 36c | 104.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 101.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…1b30backed Yes | 26c | 97.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 93.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 89.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 12c | 85.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 16c | 74.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 72.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 51c | 71.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 23c | 54.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 31c | 53.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 51.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 49.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 79c | 49.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 36c | 44.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed No | 60c | 42.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 64c | 29.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 76c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c88cbacked Yes | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 58c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 79c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda7…2f51backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 17.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 79c | 16.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.