Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce784018ecad92a7c5b78c1882145fb3075d5e8442afa1fd7e76ed1310a2274
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 26c | 741.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 25c | 446.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 418$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 296.36$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 45c | 235.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 217.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 59c | 200.48$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 68c | 198.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 193.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 189.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 179.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 61c | 166.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…9e11backed Yes | 60c | 150.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 63c | 144.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 57c | 139.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 138.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 34c | 137.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 137.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 62c | 135.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 61c | 133.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 56c | 130.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 44c | 130.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed No | 39c | 119.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 115.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 107.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 101.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 95.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 73c | 82.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 50c | 79.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 61c | 79.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 50c | 67.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 29c | 66.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 63.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 66c | 62.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 44c | 53.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 62c | 51.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 60c | 47.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 31c | 46.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 44.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 55c | 43.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 77c | 43.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 46c | 41.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 41.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 32c | 40.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 40.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 47c | 40.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 44c | 38.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 41c | 37.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 37.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 73c | 36.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 56c | 35.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 32.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 34c | 29.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 48c | 29.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 57c | 28.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 62c | 27.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 51c | 26.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 25.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 44c | 25.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 60c | 22.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…c3c4backed No | 53c | 21.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 50c | 21.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed Yes | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 76c | 20.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c88cbacked Yes | 59c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…556dbacked Yes | 65c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.