TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb74…997cbacked No26c741.5$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.842339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No25c446.19$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c418$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes73c296.36$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.985,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No45c235.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c217.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.962,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes59c200.48$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.396950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes68c198.08$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5312638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c193.65$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.621,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c189.94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.051,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c179.46$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.779,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c51…7c37backed Yes61c166.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.445933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb4…9e11backed Yes60c150.8$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4837942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes63c144.52$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No57c139.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No20c138.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No34c137.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6931124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes77c137.36$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.591,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes62c135.49$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2732147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes61c133.32$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.611,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes56c130.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes44c130.23$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8825037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf0…d2b3backed No39c119.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.961225%3 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c115.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No36c107.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No42c101.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.959,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c95.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.243,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes73c82.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No50c79.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.484334.9%15 W · 28 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes61c79.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.076240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c70.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.993,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…4ac3backed Yes50c67.07$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.476048.3%29 W · 31 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes29c66.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6354857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No78c63.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6686173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes66c62.7$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0716157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes44c53.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes35c53.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.722142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes62c53$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2098160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes62c51.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.341,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.525742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3614663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes60c47.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0152444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No31c46.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4315435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No39c44.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.542,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes55c43.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.619734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes77c43.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8523463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes46c41.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5540242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No77c41.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.830859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c41.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.422,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No32c40.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.135431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No57c40.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.222,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes47c40.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4215047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes44c38.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes41c37.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1339966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes38c37.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes73c36.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9852533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No56c35.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c32.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No34c29.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes48c29.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1819047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.714,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes56c28.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Yes57c28.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.156958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes54c27.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.621,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes62c27.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.658732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No51c26.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5242049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd4…6084backed Yes75c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.513534.1%46 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No68c25.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes44c25.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0349038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes60c22.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f9…c3c4backed No53c21.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No50c21.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6827464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes65c21.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3321547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9791…0f61backed Yes60c20.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes76c20.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0655942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No74c20.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1242976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf9…5211backed Yes72c19.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.597065.7%46 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf028…c88cbacked Yes59c19.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x015b…556dbacked Yes65c17.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.361,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245e…eab4backed No75c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128574.1%63 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes67c14.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.954158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No78c13.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9822934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.