TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c605.62$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes12c529.03$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes9c440.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.171,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c377.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes25c350.51$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.331,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c346.4$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes7c336.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3736819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes9c333.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes49c313.27$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7910…70c1backed Yes8c301.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes7c249.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c241.37$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.115,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes23c221.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.892634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c201.89$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.744,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes14c190.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2828119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c187.81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.163,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes18c184.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes7c158.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.464535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c149.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d78…e218backed Yes12c147.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.273112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c142.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712d…1d71backed Yes44c140$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes33c126.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7139535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes63c122.19$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.358643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes31c120.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3986847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes58c114.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.141010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes30c114.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.091,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes12c104.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No78c99.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes31c99.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.831,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes63c98.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes13c88.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.485313.2%7 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes37c82.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7616836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes25c80.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No67c74.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.652,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29d7…383bbacked Yes38c73.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes24c73.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes32c72.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes42c72.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes47c69.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes34c68.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.525119.6%10 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes55c62.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.413650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes23c58.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes31c57.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.721030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c56.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c55.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db1…c653backed Yes46c54.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes33c54.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0512317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc457…1675backed No41c54.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.885850%29 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes28c53.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6819123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes31c52.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4114829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes21c52.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1121052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x039c…af44backed Yes49c50.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.015046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed Yes35c48.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes44c48.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4125239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c48.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.771,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No68c48.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5135168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No69c45.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9717570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1de8…0e79backed No67c43.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.679980.8%80 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No78c38.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5226169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No57c38.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4514158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9524…74fdbacked Yes51c37.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…81c3backed No53c34.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5073…16a7backed Yes43c33.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed No58c33.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9527744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c32.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.162,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes59c32.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1817156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes39c32.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4428648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…7060backed Yes46c30.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.760739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf21e…bcdbbacked No74c29.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.581266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc993…ecd9backed Yes59c29.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c28.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes67c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7618255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ca…b823backed No36c27.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.441827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes61c27.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.694062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4475…b483backed Yes52c26.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.012951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No77c26.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2129770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes44c23.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4425042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bbc…1ce1backed Yes47c22.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed Yes58c20.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6723547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c5…2420backed Yes66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27250%36 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c0…e13fbacked No76c19.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc491…8012backed Yes59c19.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5150%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9611…f9aabacked Yes57c19.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.911566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No69c18.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7776371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…6b01backed Yes63c16.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid+11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb8…9b79backed No64c15.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No74c14.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7820928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.