Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3632f9ca52e13f9feebd39b16a7f295ec813d5abf8bcdbf2d4a4648d47b21bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 3c | 2,417$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 434.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 388.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 5c | 304.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 302.43$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 297.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 255.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 238.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 236.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 200.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 192.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 189.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed Yes | 17c | 183.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 179.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 174.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 173.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 157.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 127.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 117.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 110.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 99.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 34c | 96.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 94.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 93.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 60c | 90.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 88.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…383bbacked Yes | 33c | 85.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 81.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 80.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 77.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 64.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 31c | 54.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 27c | 46.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 40c | 46.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 68c | 44.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 41.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed No | 74c | 39.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…e221backed Yes | 32c | 39.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 73c | 39.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…a948backed Yes | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 60c | 38.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 42c | 33.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed Yes | 43c | 31.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 40c | 29.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae0…59a0backed Yes | 40c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a6…c6febacked Yes | 40c | 25.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 73c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 64c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 63c | 19.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 70c | 19.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…4842backed No | 78c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.