Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aaabd6b404e33127ca6e17c652365501a81c8ff15f0bf910a62d48b91a3dd76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked No | 0c | 14,940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,181$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 8c | 1,849$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 1,339$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 1,303$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.71 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 809.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.6 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 47c | 776.29$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.22 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 610.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 19c | 565.47$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.64 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked No | 60c | 462.04$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.85 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 403.56$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 10c | 381.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.03 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 76c | 376.35$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…96cabacked No | 10c | 363.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 4c | 360.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.73 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 346.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.51 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 344.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 22c | 325.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.42 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 19c | 315.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.09 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 33c | 298.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 252.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 237.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.13 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 220.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.06 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 192.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 57c | 184.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 167.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 68c | 155.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 155.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 20c | 153.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 153.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 62c | 148.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 66c | 140.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 47c | 138.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…5df8backed Yes | 41c | 137.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed Yes | 12c | 129.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 124.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 44c | 123.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 114.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 10c | 111.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 40c | 110.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…b7c7backed Yes | 20c | 103.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +390.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 102.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 31c | 96.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 43c | 94.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d1…b3aabacked Yes | 65c | 94.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 71c | 77.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 74.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 72c | 74.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked Yes | 40c | 73.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 69c | 73.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 69c | 72.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…6c94backed Yes | 42c | 71.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 70.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 64.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…527ebacked No | 60c | 63.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 61c | 60.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 59.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 74c | 57.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…b551backed Yes | 69c | 56.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 38c | 56.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 49c | 54.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 54.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 62c | 52.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 37c | 50.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 80c | 49.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 48.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 47.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 29c | 47.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…c9a6backed No | 64c | 45.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 50c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 39.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed No | 38c | 37.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 33.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b1…2c73backed Yes | 61c | 32.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 71c | 32.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 36c | 31.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 76c | 31.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 60c | 30.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked Yes | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 29.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 36c | 28.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 66c | 26.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 66c | 25.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…0053backed Yes | 45c | 25.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…4942backed Yes | 69c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 78c | 19.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…5e50backed Yes | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.