Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be6cc4d42297f1c7578e839d4d12f8fdd7562120ec7d6ffde3dd610a895f8c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3970…f56bbacked Yes | 1c | 47,681$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 2c | 10,909$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.58 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed Yes | 2c | 8,080$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.88 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 1,546$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed Yes | 19c | 1,373$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 5c | 1,356$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.41 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 14c | 1,303$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.91 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 3c | 1,016$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed No | 19c | 927.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed No | 3c | 891.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.98 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 20c | 831.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 681.44$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.06 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 657.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 2c | 618.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.51 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 6c | 599.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.28 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 18c | 551.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.45 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 3c | 537.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.5 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked Yes | 31c | 501.57$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.96 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 457.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 21c | 409.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 11c | 378.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.58 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 9c | 361.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 360.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 300.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 300$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 67c | 293.63$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 73c | 285.38$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.49 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 17c | 283.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.61 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed No | 70c | 282.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…eff5backed No | 11c | 280.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…5df8backed Yes | 70c | 276.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 248.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 47c | 237.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 229.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 226.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 41c | 225.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 221.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 202.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 26c | 199.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 31c | 190.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 19c | 180.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 64c | 178.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 54c | 175.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 21c | 171.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 157.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 33c | 150.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…8778backed No | 48c | 148.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 148.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 68c | 148.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 146.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 68c | 143.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 14c | 142.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 140.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 136.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 48c | 135.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 35c | 133.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 22c | 131.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 66c | 131$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed No | 11c | 119.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 25c | 117.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 70c | 115.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 53c | 112.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 24c | 112.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 59c | 107.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 12c | 101.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 100.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 98.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 30c | 98.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 95.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 23c | 90.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 90.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed Yes | 32c | 85.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 28c | 79.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 30c | 78.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 77.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 74.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 74.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes | 37c | 73.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 74c | 72.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 29c | 71.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 74c | 70.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 69.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 78c | 67.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 73c | 64.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked No | 77c | 63.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 78c | 62.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 67c | 61.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 41c | 61.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 39c | 60.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…4c80backed No | 68c | 60.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.