TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3970…f56bbacked Yes1c47,681$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.711070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ee…2912backed Yes2c10,909$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.583948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b85…7265backed Yes2c8,080$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.883860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c1,546$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…ea87backed Yes19c1,373$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.022846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No5c1,356$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.4142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No14c1,303$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.9186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed Yes3c1,016$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5728…d2b2backed No19c927.31$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.081668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+51.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed No3c891.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.9825519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cde…b02bbacked No20c831.07$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.661566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No70c681.44$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.061,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c657.9$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.414,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No2c618.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.511,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked No6c599.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.281,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No18c551.6$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.459054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed No3c537.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.53511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b85abacked Yes31c501.57$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.963259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No18c457.6$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.064,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes21c409.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed No11c378.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.587518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes9c361.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8150648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c360.56$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.311,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes29c300.74$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.755,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes75c300$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2241,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No67c293.63$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.349756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes73c285.38$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4937056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No17c283.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.6128954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26dd…f6b9backed No70c282.6$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.861233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…eff5backed No11c280.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.87728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4b…5df8backed Yes70c276.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c248.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes47c237.66$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.448016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c229.81$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c226.11$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.752,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes41c225.45$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9123035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No68c221.98$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.961,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c202.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.627,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes26c199.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.922725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No31c190.19$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6211257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No16c187.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No19c180.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3552155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b6…129dbacked No64c178.27$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.854254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes54c175.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes21c171.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3245127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes23c157.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4251321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes33c150.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.333836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes7c149.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111a…8778backed No48c148.89$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes27c148.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3361…e18ebacked Yes68c148.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.622360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes24c146.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.251,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes68c143.82$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…6278backed Yes14c142.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-67.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes30c140.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.281,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes43c136.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.851,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed Yes48c135.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.331838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed Yes35c133.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8211565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b24…1586backed Yes22c131.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.182653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes66c131$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0324046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed No11c119.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.22030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes25c117.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6637533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked No70c115.28$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.637445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes53c112.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.151747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes24c112.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4620838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No59c107.69$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1516456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No12c101.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6318530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes36c100.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc54d…72f8backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes29c98.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5321235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes30c98.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.546643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes18c95.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes23c90.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7610640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes25c90.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x247f…1aa9backed Yes32c85.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No56c80.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3620958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes28c79.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes30c78.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.565450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes24c77.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No60c74.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No56c74.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.731,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes37c73.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.352040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No74c72.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.146743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes29c71.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6417838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa287…14a8backed No74c70.23$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.162263.6%14 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick75cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No20c70$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.11,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c69.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x069e…4636backed No78c67.29$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.583447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes73c64.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.811,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd44…28ccbacked No77c63.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes78c62.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.899344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No67c61.89$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes41c61.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4111436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes39c60.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.558164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc5d…4c80backed No68c60.01$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.