Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf04e04dac320d13e63e9369de74db89974e15257a3d418f0c6cfa8bb3abedd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 478.91$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 20c | 415.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 381.94$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 225$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 220.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 213.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 184.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 183.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 176.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 176.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 66c | 170.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 159.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 153.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 141.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 65c | 132.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 132.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 131.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 36c | 128.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 64c | 127.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 121.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 111.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 111.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 27c | 108.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…5df8backed Yes | 21c | 103.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 33c | 99.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 38c | 98.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed Yes | 37c | 97.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 97.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 19c | 96.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…a71ebacked Yes | 29c | 95.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 18c | 94.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 35c | 88.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 83.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 68c | 80.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 63c | 76.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…8778backed No | 64c | 73.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 33c | 65.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 17c | 61.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 34c | 60.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 78c | 56.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 55.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 39c | 49.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 33c | 49.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 33c | 47.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 67c | 44.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 29c | 43.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 36.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 66c | 36.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 33c | 36.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 68c | 34.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 33.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 66c | 32.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 39c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 62c | 29.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 35c | 28.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 66c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 61c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…ac3ebacked No | 63c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 62c | 21.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 62c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 76c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 65c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 63c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 65c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 78c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.