Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x758bf350cc277ea48894b6c9637d6a341974078098baa10c3d99cca6c593c42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked No | 0c | 45,113$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 2,059$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,051$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 2c | 1,286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 40c | 1,014$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 871.16$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.58 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 54c | 691.85$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.82 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 627.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 71c | 553.48$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 24c | 512.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.76 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…4899backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…6e4abacked No | 9c | 418.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…ae43backed Yes | 29c | 383.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 51c | 377.72$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.74 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 50c | 355.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 317.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 305.67$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 50c | 300.37$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 68c | 286.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 17c | 264.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.98 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 4c | 252.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.48 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 33c | 245.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed No | 12c | 243.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 237.05$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 26c | 227.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.47 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 56c | 225.49$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 69c | 217.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 20c | 217.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.89 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 64c | 211.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 10c | 199.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…7a97backed Yes | 46c | 195.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 18c | 192.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 9c | 189.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 41c | 171.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 165.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 29c | 158.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 17c | 154.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 65c | 148.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 18c | 137.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 70c | 124.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 38c | 121.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 121.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…5df8backed Yes | 40c | 119.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 34c | 119.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 41c | 115.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 41c | 114.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 19c | 110.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 104.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 35c | 98.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 98.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 33c | 97.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 18c | 96.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 95.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 95.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 74c | 94.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 62c | 92.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…a71ebacked Yes | 30c | 91.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 13c | 91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 90.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 89.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 45c | 89.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed Yes | 40c | 86.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 34c | 86.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 18c | 81.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 23c | 78.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 42c | 77.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 21c | 77.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 76.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 72c | 71.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 21c | 69.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 38c | 65.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 16c | 63.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 63.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 77c | 62.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 37c | 61.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 80c | 61.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b221backed No | 66c | 58.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd7…1d26backed Yes | 68c | 57.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 35c | 52.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 49.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 39c | 48.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 27c | 46.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 36c | 45.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 43.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 33c | 40.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…8778backed No | 62c | 38.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 54c | 35.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 54c | 35.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 53c | 31.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.