Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x628d1dd83aa5e1403bca24c54afb7ed90b0357a9d5bc36c377860da2cd9d63b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,016$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,920$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 1c | 2,893$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,021$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 1,776$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,694$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 1,635$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 67c | 1,611$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9788…42c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,412$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 1,401$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 1,077$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 944.79$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 937.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…3d07backed Yes | 11c | 884.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 872.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 8c | 793.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 7c | 765.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 758.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 634.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 560.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 555.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 19c | 545.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 6c | 538.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 7c | 534.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 7c | 530$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 13c | 519.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 515.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 6c | 511.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 506.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 6c | 480.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 4c | 472.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed Yes | 5c | 466.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 444.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 32c | 444.28$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 419.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 5c | 389.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 385.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 381.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 378.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 28c | 368.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…6e4abacked Yes | 5c | 364.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 21c | 329.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 5c | 321.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…8b8ebacked Yes | 6c | 297.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 296.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…9e98backed Yes | 10c | 279.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 20c | 279.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 7c | 273.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 21c | 272.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked No | 78c | 270.53$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 9c | 261.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 15c | 260.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 18c | 247.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 245.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…a71ebacked Yes | 12c | 229.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 228.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 13c | 219.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 219.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 13c | 216.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 15c | 200.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 15c | 200.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 8c | 193.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 14c | 191.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 27c | 173.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 17c | 163.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 162.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed Yes | 16c | 162.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 14c | 155.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…7f00backed Yes | 15c | 154.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes | 9c | 154.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 35c | 152.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 29c | 149.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed No | 78c | 145.46$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 22c | 143.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 61c | 138.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 131.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 25c | 131.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 20c | 129.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…ecaebacked Yes | 12c | 128.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +208.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 77c | 117.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 115.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 13c | 114.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 114.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 20c | 113.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 14c | 111.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 21c | 105.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 12c | 100.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5afcbacked No | 64c | 98.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 39c | 96.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf896…3e6abacked Yes | 36c | 93.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…87bdbacked Yes | 16c | 88.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 75c | 88.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 66c | 87.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.