Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c6362ef8084f5567d927fb39ad7043d92742b1e7af03716db8141a7cc7346a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,535$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.21 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 1,495$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,445$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,099$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 604.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 591.22$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 553.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 10c | 457.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 47c | 455.35$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.17 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 60c | 437.18$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.63 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 10c | 436.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 375.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 45c | 313.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 305.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 305.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 41c | 292$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 70c | 275.24$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 258.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed No | 43c | 258.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 9c | 254.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 48c | 243.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 31c | 241.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 236.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked Yes | 14c | 224.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed No | 52c | 223.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 56c | 215.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 41c | 214.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 23c | 209.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 203.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 201.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 35c | 178.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 177.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 28c | 174.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 170.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…c745backed Yes | 55c | 170.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 27c | 164.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 14c | 161.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 161.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Yes | 42c | 154.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…9e98backed No | 47c | 153.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 40c | 151.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 148.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…7a97backed Yes | 25c | 138.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…5df8backed Yes | 41c | 137.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 22c | 136.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 8c | 129.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 126.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 30c | 122.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 54c | 116.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 15c | 114.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 55c | 111.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x031e…372abacked Yes | 27c | 111.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 57c | 107.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 17c | 106.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed No | 67c | 105.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 64c | 105.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 29c | 102.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 32c | 100.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 15c | 99.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 97.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 69c | 96.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 52c | 96.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 30c | 93.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 24c | 92.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 92.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 53c | 91.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed No | 51c | 90.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed No | 54c | 89.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 60c | 88.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 55c | 87.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 60c | 84.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 84.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 43c | 83.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 83.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 19c | 78.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 66c | 77.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…6c94backed Yes | 49c | 77.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 70c | 77.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 33c | 74.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 73c | 71.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 69.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 65c | 69.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 71c | 68.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 68.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 44c | 65.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 69c | 65.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 43c | 63.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 19c | 63.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 61.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…d5cdbacked No | 53c | 61.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 26c | 60.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 59.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 58.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed No | 45c | 57.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.