Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154116725fcc204a9016f34b32958257aaac21c18d7ae5005efae3d1e4996e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce04…ae43backed Yes | 1c | 10,269$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,151$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,690$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,140$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 1,581$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 8c | 1,559$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,493$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 919.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 77c | 902$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 33c | 650.69$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.38 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Yes | 9c | 640.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 534.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 11c | 499.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 495.28$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 482.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 13c | 439.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 14c | 404.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 403.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 20c | 371.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 8c | 342.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb487…6012backed Yes | 4c | 335.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 24c | 320$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 303.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 73c | 296.59$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 288.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 10c | 259.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 246.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 15c | 244.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 12c | 238.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 236.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 33c | 219.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 217.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 9c | 210.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…6c94backed Yes | 8c | 204.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 14c | 202.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 197.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 11c | 196.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 20c | 184.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 24c | 178.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd693…0c8abacked Yes | 11c | 172.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 157.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 23c | 151.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 16c | 151.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…c729backed Yes | 25c | 145.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 138.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 23c | 135.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 73c | 132.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 118.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes | 30c | 114.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 12c | 108.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 13c | 103.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 73c | 103.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 99.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 91.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 35c | 89.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 89.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 88.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 86.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 85.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 84.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 18c | 83.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 80.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 74.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 74.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…457ebacked Yes | 19c | 72.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked Yes | 35c | 69.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes | 27c | 68.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 69c | 67.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…1010backed No | 65c | 67.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 71c | 67.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 24c | 55.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 22c | 55.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 71c | 55.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 54.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…e426backed No | 74c | 53.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 32c | 48.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 72c | 47.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 66c | 46.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 67c | 45.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 53c | 44.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed Yes | 28c | 40.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 38.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 75c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 27c | 37.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked No | 70c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…68e5backed Yes | 33c | 33.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 31.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…87edbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.