Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe24dfb8929dd1476a0baa9bcd731b7c0d71a85df09a8c07b08168756239fe5a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 3c | 3,445$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,159$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,013$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,194$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 1,075$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 2c | 893.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 13c | 836.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 5c | 827.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…2359backed Yes | 2c | 677.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 598.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 538.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 510.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 490.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 4c | 463.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 4c | 457$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 51c | 415.42$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 402.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb806…6787backed Yes | 5c | 341.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 4c | 319.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 12c | 299.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 4c | 297.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed No | 77c | 296.63$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 11c | 283.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 8c | 272.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 4c | 263$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 231.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 9c | 217.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…0574backed Yes | 6c | 207.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 11c | 197.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 9c | 187.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 186.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 148.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 40c | 133.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 74c | 131.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 114.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 10c | 111.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 12c | 111.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…0512backed Yes | 20c | 108.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 101.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 52c | 101.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…ffffbacked Yes | 15c | 91.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 35c | 85.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 40c | 84.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 25c | 81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 17c | 77.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 16c | 62.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 60c | 60.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 26c | 58.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 69c | 52.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…b098backed No | 78c | 50.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 53c | 49.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 38c | 48.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 65c | 44.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Yes | 32c | 43.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 31c | 38.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 78c | 37.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 37.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 59c | 27.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 65c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 75c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 62c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 64c | 16.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.