Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ee3af0ac18c9e46ec2cac82ff820480f1b50b55ffc4772ca8817ede99661ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 3c | 573.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 314.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 313.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 297.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 287.63$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 217.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 30c | 210.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 33c | 206.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 184.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 170.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 159.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 156.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 152.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 149.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 149.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 54c | 139.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 45c | 135.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 122.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…0149backed Yes | 45c | 104.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 103$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 55c | 100.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 99.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 98.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 90.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 90.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 76c | 87.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 46c | 86.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 14c | 85.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 27c | 62.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 68c | 60.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 69c | 57.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 41c | 54.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 68c | 51.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 47.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 46.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 57c | 41.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 59c | 40.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 75c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 44c | 38.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 37.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 60c | 36.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 34.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 59c | 31.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 31.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 78c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…b58abacked Yes | 42c | 25.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 79c | 24.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…70a5backed No | 55c | 22.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 58c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 58c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 62c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.