TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,265 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes12c739.97$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.1814659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c388.65$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No70c369.11$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.0851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No5c359.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.677,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No34c347.83$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c294.26$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.065,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No68c294$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c283.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.752,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes31c277.72$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.541,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes37c258.7$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.721,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c257.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.069,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No78c228.06$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.71,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes30c221.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.335233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c217.93$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.262,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes8c200$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes70c194$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes23c177.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes31c176.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2112638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes16c173.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.182,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes70c166.29$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8954154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c157.68$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.074,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c153.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.642,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes25c127.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.888643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes25c126.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c124.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.787,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes32c117.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9349941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No70c112.62$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8346444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c105.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb806…6787backed No79c98.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb7…841cbacked No13c97.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb5…cbc8backed Yes33c96.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.67540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes31c94.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes68c92.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6618164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c88.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No75c86.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.132,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c80.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.424,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes25c79.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.620835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c68.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.763,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c65.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.771,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No78c64.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No75c57.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7142469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes56c55.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3627540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No20c49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d74…0149backed Yes31c45.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.67850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No76c45.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.525154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes35c42.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4211436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No75c39.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9172466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ad…a131backed Yes31c39.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes69c39.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes70c38.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6414144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No79c36.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes29c35.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.453336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0430…b061backed No70c34.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e72…293cbacked Yes33c33.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed No72c33.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1324770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…8474backed No70c33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.227156.3%40 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c30.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes62c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5510258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No64c29.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No51c29.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.811925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1597…f215backed No72c29.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a2…7e2fbacked No70c27.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No75c27.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8233450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No80c25.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3822265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c5…674ebacked No71c21.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No75c20.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x139b…a1a5backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No76c19.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.19753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No76c19.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.19553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No73c19.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.217972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b5…757fbacked No79c18.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981384.6%11 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick76cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No63c17.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No79c15.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.422,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.