Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d31a9a4bdba38547ce5056997a9b92f56772f945430edd754bd6e6c7b30327f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,085$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 478.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 321$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 297.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 16c | 259.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 230.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 11c | 221.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 13c | 180.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 147.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 9c | 115.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 109.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 92.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 89.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 21c | 68.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 22c | 54.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 49.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 80c | 49.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 21c | 48.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 76c | 48.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 77c | 39.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 79c | 37.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 79c | 29.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 78c | 24.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 79c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 77c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.