Token Launches · resolved market
Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a85d54b88ba5a6d4055de4e29581e5ea77d491942ad60914cbb93ade3977cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed No | 55c | 17,561$9,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,846.19 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked Yes | 56c | 10,640$5,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,938.34 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1e6abacked Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,630$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,687$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.84 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed Yes | 27c | 1,321$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.41 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 13c | 1,126$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.69 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 79c | 1,121$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.45 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…8a3fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 23c | 900$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 26c | 888$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 48c | 702.89$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.07 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 2c | 611.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…b738backed No | 10c | 588.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.76 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…99acbacked Yes | 17c | 580.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed No | 4c | 496.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.99 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 14c | 422.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 9c | 400$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…54babacked Yes | 29c | 394.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 65c | 379.15$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 51c | 377.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 335.04$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…18a1backed No | 13c | 315.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…e8abbacked Yes | 70c | 308.68$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…4572backed Yes | 16c | 301.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 5c | 291.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.77 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…66cfbacked Yes | 42c | 270$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 54c | 264$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 8c | 250.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.45 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 18c | 248.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.24 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 13c | 222.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…45c8backed Yes | 30c | 215.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 212.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 187.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Yes | 17c | 181.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…704ebacked No | 11c | 171.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 161.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…6b4cbacked Yes | 69c | 145.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 12c | 145$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 62c | 138.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Yes | 33c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 29c | 133.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…6577backed Yes | 31c | 129.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed No | 13c | 125.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 69c | 118.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 11c | 112$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked Yes | 13c | 103.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 98.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed Yes | 27c | 88.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 78.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 16c | 75.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 37c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…459fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 48c | 68.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 44c | 56.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…de11backed Yes | 31c | 51.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 44c | 45.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…e387backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…8748backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Bitway public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.