Token Launches · resolved market
Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c9bc945aecca92094d4823dd15030d21d050a53a644c3f9a5e30e26a9148ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed Yes | 32c | 4,500$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.99 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…935abacked No | 76c | 4,393$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.82 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,782$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed No | 65c | 1,542$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.85 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked No | 65c | 1,532$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.62 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…20adbacked Yes | 24c | 1,374$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1e6abacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 767.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed No | 55c | 732.06$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +340.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 43c | 707$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.06 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 683$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 441.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 66c | 302.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 281.43$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…806bbacked No | 66c | 273.12$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 61c | 244.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…b738backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…573ebacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 186.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…e8abbacked Yes | 36c | 179.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 162$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 8c | 156.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 60c | 155$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 70c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 37c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed No | 68c | 50.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 33c | 49.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 27c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Bitway public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.