Token Launches · resolved market
Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2343f82e6df8ebaddc7f4da8f867ffb7a70136312900c15678b92a63bbe8d532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $381,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 3c | 118,270$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed No | 54c | 44,395$23,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,616.54 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 2c | 40,000$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 0c | 27,856$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 15,243$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.99 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked Yes | 31c | 11,751$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630.02 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…955dbacked Yes | 10c | 11,490$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 40c | 9,223$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.22 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…beacbacked Yes | 64c | 4,275$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,859$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 27c | 3,557$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.59 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 19c | 3,488$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.55 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked Yes | 43c | 3,400$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 55c | 2,404$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.51 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,349$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…8a3fbacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,548$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 17c | 1,527$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 56c | 1,384$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.04 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed No | 65c | 1,372$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,160$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 11c | 838.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…66cfbacked Yes | 73c | 816.52$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 53c | 806.37$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 71c | 680.01$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed No | 15c | 646.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed Yes | 16c | 640$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 2c | 586.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.94 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 541.37$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 11c | 442.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.71 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 59c | 374.98$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 349.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 334.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…6577backed Yes | 69c | 303.94$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…3d10backed Yes | 75c | 296.94$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…893dbacked No | 8c | 274.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +478%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…d442backed Yes | 11c | 274.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 64c | 270$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…99acbacked Yes | 37c | 268.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 65c | 260$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 39c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 60c | 248.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +12.3wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…6594backed Yes | 54c | 240$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…b309backed No | 37c | 239.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…fb8fbacked Yes | 44c | 227.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 59c | 207.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 37c | 204.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…9ec9backed Yes | 46c | 185$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 52c | 176.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…de11backed Yes | 50c | 159.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…6aecbacked Yes | 32c | 155.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 22c | 152.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…5cb2backed No | 65c | 150.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 9c | 142.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…459fbacked Yes | 70c | 142.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed Yes | 57c | 138.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 120.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…7a18backed No | 17c | 120.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +502.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd793…fb6fbacked Yes | 49c | 101.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…7929backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…4572backed Yes | 50c | 96.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…a9f1backed No | 38c | 93.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…a286backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked Yes | 18c | 77.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 46c | 76.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…0952backed No | 32c | 71.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 25c | 66.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 51c | 48.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 33c | 36.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 67c | 29.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…f599backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Bitway public sale?Yes won
- Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.