La Liga · resolved market
Girona vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x279090b1d72c6a0c56a3210ee814025e7b2b556c828ec40e40f418484baae8c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 50c | 58,194$29,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,092.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 50c | 20,600$10,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,300 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 19,447$13,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,987.11 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 9,185$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,162.52 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 21c | 8,789$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.89 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 6,428$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,214.05 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…62bbbacked Over | 51c | 5,686$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 48c | 4,891$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 49c | 2,043$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 73c | 1,294$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 51c | 999.98$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 24c | 959$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 52c | 621.75$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 35c | 570.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 551.62$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.84 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 532.55$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 74c | 443.24$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…0c7ebacked Over | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 74c | 281.59$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Over | 15c | 278.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 245$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 49c | 232.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 228$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…74aebacked Under | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Under | 76c | 173.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 51c | 168.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 19c | 162.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 54c | 161.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Under | 51c | 155$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Over | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 50c | 111.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Over | 25c | 103.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…5cc1backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ba…0ec1backed Over | 51c | 95.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…6092backed Over | 29c | 79.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 78.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 61c | 73.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Under | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Under | 52c | 55.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 51c | 53.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 52c | 50.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 50c | 48.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29e…1d2bbacked Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…8f92backed Under | 72c | 42.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Under | 65c | 41.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked Over | 25c | 40.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…e93cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 49c | 38.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…6c4cbacked Over | 48c | 37.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 48c | 36.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…7589backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 51c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…f247backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Girona vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Girona vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Girona vs. Real Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Girona vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)Girona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.