La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e91493b2db302f4a98cf8126f19560104c61b8f2d75a4ab7076a0f6265c7aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 41,389$12,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,663.87 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 57c | 13,732$7,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,950.37 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 9,319$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.09 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 71c | 3,500$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 12c | 3,260$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.08 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 68c | 2,721$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.72 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 36c | 1,905$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.37 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,697$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.21 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…81a2backed Over | 63c | 1,581$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 22c | 1,403$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 60c | 1,283$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.33 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 54c | 1,171$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.08 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 64c | 1,144$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 53c | 638.98$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.32 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 19c | 525.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 77c | 517.2$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 12c | 485.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 464.86$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 27c | 337.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…98babacked Over | 75c | 332.12$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 11c | 318.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 32c | 312.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.81 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…d605backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 12c | 244$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Over | 49c | 196.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 196.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 80c | 168.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Over | 55c | 119.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 67c | 108.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 33c | 95.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 12c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 59c | 70.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…f6e4backed Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Under | 35c | 65.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cbf8backed Over | 54c | 60.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Over | 19c | 57.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…a886backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 61c | 34.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…1b31backed Over | 55c | 30.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 61c | 27.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 67c | 25.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…2501backed Over | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)Celta Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.