La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489f50fbdb6004de30b55c975363a174646fb451fd5e02dcfabf6aaf0e45092b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celta Vigoof Real Madrid, Celta Vigo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celta Vigo | 76c | 14,494$11,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,482.17 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Real Madrid | 22c | 9,045$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.73 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Real Madrid | 25c | 2,138$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.34 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Real Madrid | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Celta Vigo | 77c | 997.98$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…0060backed Real Madrid | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celta Vigo | 65c | 668$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.8 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Real Madrid | 34c | 572.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celta Vigo | 66c | 572.79$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Real Madrid | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Real Madrid | 34c | 444.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Real Madrid | 33c | 407$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Real Madrid | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celta Vigo | 65c | 369.29$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Real Madrid | 35c | 357.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…7e61backed Real Madrid | 24c | 330.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Real Madrid | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Real Madrid | 13c | 221$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Celta Vigo | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Celta Vigo | 65c | 178.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Real Madrid | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6881…525dbacked Real Madrid | 29c | 151.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Real Madrid | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Real Madrid | 26c | 137.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Real Madrid | 34c | 119.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Celta Vigo | 66c | 116.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…3f3ebacked Real Madrid | 34c | 99.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Real Madrid | 33c | 92.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Real Madrid | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Real Madrid | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Celta Vigo | 67c | 76.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Celta Vigo | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Celta Vigo | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Real Madrid | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Celta Vigo | 76c | 61.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Real Madrid | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…3907backed Real Madrid | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef4…3405backed Real Madrid | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Real Madrid | 36c | 55.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Celta Vigo | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Celta Vigo | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Real Madrid | 32c | 44.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Celta Vigo | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Celta Vigo | 78c | 33.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Celta Vigo | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…3be0backed Celta Vigo | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Celta Vigo | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Celta Vigo | 67c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Celta Vigo | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Celta Vigo | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.