La Liga · resolved market

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a6bd24dd417a2e101972ca33e83d5d197f007a506f24a2da5bb27ac1724dcb

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,609 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in La Liga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	23c	14,257$3,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,214.36	691	42.5%294 W · 397 L	-21.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	78c	9,325$7,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,063.81	4,740	47%2,230 W · 2,510 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	27c	4,993$1,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,373.04	908	43.6%396 W · 512 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	52c	3,773$1,978 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,795.43	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Under	52c	3,236$1,698 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,537.9	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	55c	2,465$1,357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,107.44	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…6cc9backed Over	48c	1,434$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.28	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.8wins	-0.27per pick	48cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	38c	864$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.28	559	41.1%230 W · 329 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	52c	825.43$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.2	234	52.6%123 W · 111 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Over	48c	666.67$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	48c	663.15$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.31	110	49.1%54 W · 56 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	75c	619.72$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.18	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	81	42%34 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	77c	492$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.16	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over	47c	490.68$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.62	61	41%25 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	41c	484$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.62	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Under	52c	399.97$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.99	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Under	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Under	55c	324.4$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.98	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…b699backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Under	55c	281.82$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.82	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+103.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	275.32$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.88	1,018	53.1%541 W · 477 L	-24.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	54c	242.23$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.43	240	47.9%115 W · 125 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Over	48c	239.58$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Over	48c	203.46$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.66	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	26c	184.1$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.21	299	46.5%139 W · 160 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Under	55c	151.24$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.06	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	231	52.8%122 W · 109 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5c…ed5bbacked Over	48c	125$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c6…38a9backed Over	48c	108.15$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Over	48c	106.25$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0da9…9d56backed Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042a…6bcfbacked Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda70…828bbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	-4.9wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	240	52.9%127 W · 113 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	61.2%30 W · 19 L	+4.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5d…20c8backed Over	48c	83.35$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.01	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.44per pick	56cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over	47c	79.88$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.54	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6881…525dbacked Over	35c	78.23$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.38	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	48c	72.92$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	308	42.9%132 W · 176 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over	48c	72.92$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Over	49c	71.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	262	42.7%112 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f2…beb8backed Over	27c	71.25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf237…46edbacked Over	22c	68.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf830…c2dbbacked Over	48c	60.42$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over	48c	60.15$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Under	52c	55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	86	53.5%46 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x08cd…4edbbacked Over	46c	52.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	48c	52.09$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	226	38.5%87 W · 139 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	225	53.8%121 W · 104 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1170…8398backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d1e…327abacked Over	48c	45.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.65	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Under	53c	45$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.15	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe1bf…6b5abacked Under	56c	44.82$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.82	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2897…0004backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1696…c0d5backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.9wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd935…5e85backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under	77c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c42…e5a5backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb3f…7589backed Under	77c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.59	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	532	46.1%245 W · 287 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	70c	29.99$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	572	52.1%298 W · 274 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Under	76c	27.21$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.53	81	59.3%48 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	51c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	791	33%261 W · 530 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…0ea4backed Under	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	119	52.9%63 W · 56 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b0a…266fbacked Under	54c	23.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+86%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5this page
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)Celta Vigo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event