TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei seen in public by March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x576f…f670backed Yes1c108,845$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+131.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes2c6,533$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2614821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x36a1…b10bbacked Yes4c5,510$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d6…235bbacked Yes2c4,161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e58…f540backed Yes5c3,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes3c2,996$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+74.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes3c2,903$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.096753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes7c2,863$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.621625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e4…70b0backed Yes1c2,653$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.533935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes4c2,426$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004415.9%7 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,296$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.375071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes4c2,217$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.185324.5%13 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13a…cc01backed Yes5c2,137$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.751926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2eb…a9dabacked Yes5c1,993$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,918$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.194928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cba…b9f5backed Yes28c1,816$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes2c1,684$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.382250%11 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe66b…91a9backed Yes6c1,553$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.582010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes3c1,500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…a915backed Yes5c1,486$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes7c1,476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…fedbbacked Yes3c1,441$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes2c1,352$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.12660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d21…8648backed Yes4c1,350$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cfc…5d5dbacked No79c1,313$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.021850%9 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+67.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbccb…f824backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No70c1,186$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.433748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…5923backed Yes2c1,170$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.111618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+204.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes3c1,037$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0e…19a9backed Yes7c1,014$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a49…ee41backed Yes6c1,003$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.241127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+190.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32a9…fc3fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb2…cee7backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212010%2 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-83.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes2c989.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.299410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf1…7e8ebacked Yes31c973.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf237…46edbacked Yes2c963.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c947.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.511818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes22c934.64$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.23923.1%9 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x024d…6b2bbacked Yes4c805$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes25c802.14$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.177230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf77b…4e34backed Yes4c776.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e3…fdb5backed Yes4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked Yes8c746.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x543f…7692backed Yes4c703.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7883…c430backed Yes2c696.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd797…b968backed Yes3c685.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+156.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c642.25$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86f4…5d47backed Yes2c619.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes4c573$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.132123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce7…f91cbacked Yes4c563.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee5…0b29backed Yes3c555.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…c822backed Yes4c555.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No79c549.09$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4110435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8783…e08ebacked Yes4c506.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…f000backed Yes4c500.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cc…78a9backed Yes4c500.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1847…6a63backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-88.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd36e…0b6ebacked Yes21c484.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes4c475$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+535%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Yes3c450$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.05175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+84.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…c502backed Yes5c433.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…973dbacked Yes4c425.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked No78c425$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe92b…383fbacked Yes5c414$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes9c409.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.812733.3%9 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa30…c7abbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+96.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2931…edc0backed Yes5c386.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…22fabacked No79c381.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d07…c976backed Yes13c358.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb416…c7a1backed Yes15c320.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.773545.7%16 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes14c305.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xb1dd…5625backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…5abbbacked Yes6c299.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes5c271$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeee…171dbacked No79c254.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ff…ea5dbacked Yes4c250.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…da3cbacked Yes5c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ed…31bcbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…2a81backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca62…0306backed Yes6c248.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No50c227.86$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9322227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbd8…3930backed Yes6c224.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…dc46backed Yes6c219.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0790…5931backed Yes5c208.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…ca17backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b3…b95abacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.573158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b1…0924backed Yes11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f48…3154backed Yes13c199.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa674…36a2backed Yes6c199.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No79c191.8$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0816447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ca…c3babacked Yes5c186.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd795…6af0backed Yes6c172.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaeb…fa30backed Yes34c147.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes8c138.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No64c137.02$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.334940.8%20 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked No79c130.07$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.724866.7%32 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c9…1c13backed No72c129.72$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.722536%9 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.