Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153087fd0b5bd203a8c42651d550f96e370093ccf9bd28eaeb0870e9c17cf0de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $322,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x576f…f670backed Yes | 1c | 108,845$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 2c | 6,533$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x36a1…b10bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,510$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…235bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…f540backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes | 3c | 2,996$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,903$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 7c | 2,863$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 1c | 2,653$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 4c | 2,426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,296$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,217$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…cc01backed Yes | 5c | 2,137$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2eb…a9dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,993$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,918$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9f5backed Yes | 28c | 1,816$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,684$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…91a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,553$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…a915backed Yes | 5c | 1,486$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…fedbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,441$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 2c | 1,352$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…8648backed Yes | 4c | 1,350$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…5d5dbacked No | 79c | 1,313$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbccb…f824backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 70c | 1,186$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.43 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…5923backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,037$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…19a9backed Yes | 7c | 1,014$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a49…ee41backed Yes | 6c | 1,003$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…cee7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 989.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…7e8ebacked Yes | 31c | 973.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 2c | 963.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 947.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 22c | 934.64$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…6b2bbacked Yes | 4c | 805$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 25c | 802.14$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…4e34backed Yes | 4c | 776.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…fdb5backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Yes | 8c | 746.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…7692backed Yes | 4c | 703.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…c430backed Yes | 2c | 696.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…b968backed Yes | 3c | 685.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 642.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…5d47backed Yes | 2c | 619.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 4c | 573$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…f91cbacked Yes | 4c | 563.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…0b29backed Yes | 3c | 555.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…c822backed Yes | 4c | 555.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 79c | 549.09$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…e08ebacked Yes | 4c | 506.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…f000backed Yes | 4c | 500.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cc…78a9backed Yes | 4c | 500.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…0b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 484.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd3abacked Yes | 4c | 475$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +535%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 3c | 450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 5c | 433.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…973dbacked Yes | 4c | 425.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked No | 78c | 425$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…383fbacked Yes | 5c | 414$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 9c | 409.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…c7abbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Yes | 5c | 386.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…22fabacked No | 79c | 381.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…c976backed Yes | 13c | 358.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed Yes | 15c | 320.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 305.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…5abbbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed Yes | 5c | 271$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeee…171dbacked No | 79c | 254.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ff…ea5dbacked Yes | 4c | 250.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…da3cbacked Yes | 5c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…31bcbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…2a81backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…0306backed Yes | 6c | 248.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 50c | 227.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…3930backed Yes | 6c | 224.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…dc46backed Yes | 6c | 219.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…5931backed Yes | 5c | 208.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…ca17backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…b95abacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…3154backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa674…36a2backed Yes | 6c | 199.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 79c | 191.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…c3babacked Yes | 5c | 186.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…6af0backed Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaeb…fa30backed Yes | 34c | 147.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 138.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 64c | 137.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 79c | 130.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed No | 72c | 129.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei seen in public by March 1?this page
- Khamenei seen in public by February 28?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 14?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 2?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 3?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 4?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.