Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa587cb22e57afb9df42dbc96ebd6970f3af54a8a8ac798715542c90630f43b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 10c | 12,096$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.91 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 11c | 11,666$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.04 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 4c | 8,310$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.35 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 1c | 6,655$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,583$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,141$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,815$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 14c | 5,376$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…5f73backed Yes | 3c | 5,098$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 9c | 4,791$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed Yes | 22c | 4,766$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9f5backed Yes | 13c | 3,795$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…f000backed Yes | 2c | 3,763$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a49…ee41backed Yes | 1c | 3,304$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,948$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…ec37backed Yes | 2c | 2,086$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,890$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.63 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,867$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd528…ecb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,755$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 1,674$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x762c…a43dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…cc01backed Yes | 3c | 1,520$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd8…3e29backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Yes | 2c | 1,302$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…92fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,301$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,260$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed Yes | 11c | 1,217$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb62c…bea3backed Yes | 4c | 1,095$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 15c | 1,034$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7e…3aeebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 981.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Yes | 4c | 951.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…0165backed Yes | 7c | 930$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…0c45backed Yes | 1c | 850.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 2c | 809.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…6be6backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 11c | 794.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 3c | 793.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…057fbacked Yes | 2c | 791.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1552…b18fbacked Yes | 4c | 790$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…af55backed Yes | 9c | 684.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 41c | 646.69$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.55 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 16c | 619.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 12c | 618.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…cb53backed Yes | 2c | 602.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 11c | 567.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…5931backed Yes | 4c | 565.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 13c | 510.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…c7abbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 4c | 404.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 8c | 399.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 13c | 398.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c2…7a21backed Yes | 3c | 396.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…e08ebacked Yes | 3c | 376.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…2d2fbacked Yes | 10c | 375$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…45eebacked Yes | 17c | 348.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 8c | 332.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 12c | 267.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Yes | 4c | 260.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…0c0fbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…36d4backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…8dd2backed Yes | 11c | 187.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…34f7backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 9c | 156.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…fe2bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…b822backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…9e41backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…d8ffbacked Yes | 8c | 147.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…4779backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…6a64backed Yes | 13c | 117.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…e682backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…196cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…7c55backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…07edbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…d2bfbacked Yes | 13c | 82.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…3430backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1981…9a0bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei seen in public by February 28?this page
- Khamenei seen in public by March 14?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 1?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 2?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 3?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 4?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.