Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei seen in public by March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e510af52727f7cd942c8484c9241ef23ca0df978b85c88786fb341cf135ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 5c | 6,663$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.82 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 8c | 1,934$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 5c | 1,106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,052$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,049$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 962.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ba…fecabacked Yes | 7c | 639.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 448.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 4c | 443.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 5c | 425.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…c456backed Yes | 8c | 223.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0426…b74cbacked Yes | 7c | 178.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 20c | 155.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…e08ebacked Yes | 8c | 125.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…3d23backed Yes | 21c | 95.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…9550backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…202bbacked No | 65c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei seen in public by March 4?this page
- Khamenei seen in public by February 28?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 14?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 1?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 2?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 3?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.