Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei seen in public by March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd1829304fe53ba71ea5dfeb7ff40c6f365ed9d848416b346fb5d574c5077e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 2c | 6,577$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 4c | 5,152$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 9c | 3,651$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.14 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…cc80backed Yes | 6c | 2,577$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37cf…14bebacked Yes | 6c | 1,743$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 5c | 1,507$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,484$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,479$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,298$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,058$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 925.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…d0abbacked Yes | 6c | 819.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 3c | 762.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 749.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 747.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 66c | 695.99$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.95 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 630.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 2c | 560.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…7692backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 24c | 467.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…f000backed Yes | 5c | 419.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…f91cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a49…ee41backed Yes | 9c | 355.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 346.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 75c | 339.42$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…ccf3backed Yes | 6c | 336.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8037…d534backed Yes | 4c | 323.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…ebb0backed No | 79c | 310.52$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…8e44backed Yes | 7c | 210.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…8156backed Yes | 28c | 177.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0426…b74cbacked Yes | 9c | 156.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 67c | 147.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d3…fb54backed No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…4a73backed Yes | 37c | 54.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…0978backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…684cbacked No | 76c | 39.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…90d3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…d319backed No | 79c | 26.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…1ee4backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30a…d884backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…b45abacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei seen in public by March 2?this page
- Khamenei seen in public by February 28?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 14?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 1?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 3?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 4?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.