Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei seen in public by March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad46f581550bd7fc198a2dba5b97a53f182997f602147edc378525782730437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 0c | 65,854$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.54 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…6affbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 6c | 6,655$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.65 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 3c | 3,100$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…32c9backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…4a2fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,958$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…eeeabacked Yes | 37c | 2,699$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…ae34backed Yes | 7c | 2,484$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…89dabacked Yes | 6c | 2,208$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,128$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed Yes | 19c | 2,051$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,906$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 6c | 1,727$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,649$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,589$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,539$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,527$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,523$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…70e4backed Yes | 9c | 1,336$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…9241backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 991.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…4353backed Yes | 4c | 890.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 860.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…5418backed Yes | 5c | 788.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…b955backed Yes | 3c | 754.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1903…5c83backed Yes | 12c | 750.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…610bbacked Yes | 7c | 720.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 14c | 719.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…ea7abacked Yes | 5c | 656.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…a8adbacked Yes | 20c | 646.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 619.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 615.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 3c | 587.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 5c | 534.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…bff4backed Yes | 9c | 510.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…6bc3backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…3154backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…3976backed Yes | 3c | 485.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ba…1303backed Yes | 7c | 467.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Yes | 4c | 452.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 20c | 434.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked Yes | 4c | 371.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 34c | 345.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…5cfebacked Yes | 4c | 340.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12eb…b79fbacked Yes | 12c | 336.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…773bbacked Yes | 6c | 312.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…c77cbacked Yes | 10c | 290.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 7c | 280$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 6c | 229.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…995abacked Yes | 13c | 226.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…e90bbacked Yes | 20c | 211.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 38c | 210.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…3373backed Yes | 10c | 208.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0426…b74cbacked Yes | 8c | 196.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f423backed Yes | 7c | 191.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…8957backed Yes | 65c | 141.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…598fbacked Yes | 12c | 120.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…f000backed Yes | 10c | 101.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…ca85backed Yes | 14c | 100.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…16dbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ee…a1b6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…1c2abacked No | 61c | 31.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…1390backed Yes | 38c | 29.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei seen in public by March 14?this page
- Khamenei seen in public by February 28?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 1?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 2?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 3?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 4?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.