Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei seen in public by March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1938a347b41a4b58665f83ee7c445bc9efb69c76fca9f26636530c77291b03f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 3c | 8,022$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,572$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,332$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,308$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…e753backed Yes | 8c | 1,077$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,027$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…633cbacked Yes | 5c | 997.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 1c | 964.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 791.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 724.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 2c | 710.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…eaddbacked Yes | 7c | 674.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 4c | 554.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 3c | 512.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 4c | 500.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 443.6$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 22c | 429.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 3c | 420.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 402.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc102…8472backed Yes | 4c | 391.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 385.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…0796backed Yes | 5c | 385$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…c456backed Yes | 6c | 364.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 3c | 360.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…8156backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…3154backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…fd58backed Yes | 5c | 295.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…5b3fbacked Yes | 6c | 263.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe35…0383backed Yes | 8c | 259.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…59fabacked Yes | 7c | 214.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…e9bdbacked Yes | 22c | 202.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…7671backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…551fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…93efbacked No | 63c | 157.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…21c7backed No | 80c | 138.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 122.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…0f10backed Yes | 14c | 119.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 64c | 98.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…162ebacked Yes | 32c | 77.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2236backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0196backed Yes | 25c | 60.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…3263backed No | 40c | 43.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei seen in public by March 3?this page
- Khamenei seen in public by February 28?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 14?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 1?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 2?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 4?No won
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.