TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x94fe…fe2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+150.5%+$24.08
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+229.3%+$45.87
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$149.55
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150.5%+$75.25
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$71.95
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Evacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 16 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+35.6%+$15.15
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winnerbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$29.07
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$21.93
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25.42
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winnerbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.63
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+40.8%+$10.21
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+47.7%+$33.39
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+62.6%+$9.38
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.