Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75462b04b7b9ffc0cdf68c4098124a84ffe5bfb0ded197ce0631765dc5c55149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 69c | 5,727$3,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.56 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 3,352$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 32c | 1,507$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.65 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 68c | 1,085$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.13 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 61c | 989.13$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.2 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 52c | 960.02$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.61 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 26c | 860.87$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 796.61$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 540.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 49c | 485$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.88 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 49c | 480$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3111backed Yes | 48c | 465.5$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 458.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 28c | 446.43$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 364$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 29c | 353.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 75c | 299.98$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Yes | 22c | 189.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 171$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 64c | 145.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 77c | 140.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 76c | 117.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 41c | 113.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 30c | 101.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…fe2bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 97.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 23c | 87.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Yes | 48c | 62.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 47c | 59.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 47.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…458bbacked No | 78c | 40.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 76c | 37.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.