Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e4f7653d61cc99c78441405ebf6bf93955422e30585b67ddbbfb7ced531eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed No | 77c | 2,443$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Yes | 22c | 2,277$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 1,956$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.83 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,915$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.22 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed No | 77c | 1,296$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 1,256$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.88 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 23c | 1,175$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 808.21$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 7c | 707.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 610$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 23c | 435$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 22c | 386.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 77c | 312.7$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 292.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 10c | 283.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…3175backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 79c | 245.78$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…992cbacked No | 78c | 181.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 171.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 155.24$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 77c | 151.36$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 20c | 147.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 78c | 135.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 23c | 131.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…abfabacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…fe2bbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 78c | 91.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 79c | 90.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…cc2cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 77c | 74.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 79c | 68.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 68c | 58.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 22c | 58.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1e40backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456d…68d9backed No | 78c | 45.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b69…c635backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…458bbacked No | 80c | 41.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 32c | 41.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 78c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…32f6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.