TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed No38c200,148$76,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,117.7111445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes72c81,588$58,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,986.693,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes51c54,951$28,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,925.855052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes51c40,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,6009455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed Yes51c20,001$10,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,800.491154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked No52c12,282$6,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,386.194443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes73c11,030$8,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.0319544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ef…d497backed Yes51c4,902$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No49c4,900$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.994341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No22c4,745$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.062,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes74c4,030$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.1553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.949854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Yes63c2,595$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.611566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No20c2,351$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.2615064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes66c2,004$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.7875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0202748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No44c1,619$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.156543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No52c1,518$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.1912651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes53c1,509$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.433246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed No33c1,500$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.123357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes52c1,458$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.2822747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes70c1,364$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.9855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No37c1,352$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes53c1,345$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.9156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes48c1,304$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.3314846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4904965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+41.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Yes51c998.04$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.042638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No6c848.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0522332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No49c836$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.910057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No21c818.13$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.293215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34a2…b10bbacked Yes49c750$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked No50c558.12$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.885046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed No37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No48c515.36$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.024938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No41c499.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20515847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes51c479.21$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.3234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes79c456.49$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5613332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes69c437.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.931560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes47c425.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.659951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No27c421.5$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes49c395.76$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.8314756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Yes78c367.41$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd371…4478backed No18c356.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.21825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+1,204.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed No41c350$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1422330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6891…949fbacked Yes56c339.8$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes48c331.45$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.361560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes50c290.64$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes53c269.81$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.812138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No49c263.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.289746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd4…ebc4backed Yes52c234$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd502…4d4cbacked No49c217.42$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.182161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Yes47c215.23$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.071758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a9c…5480backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+80.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10033340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes49c199$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2915134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked No51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.082236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.318532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes50c176.19$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6510040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedb1…3fddbacked No46c165.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.783336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe91c…5331backed Yes58c160$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.161758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725959.3%35 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No47c149.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2623046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x058d…bbabbacked Yes71c133.8$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0328…9514backed Yes46c110$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked No48c109.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.794639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes48c108.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.26154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked No47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Yes51c100.47$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.14744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5113555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed No49c97.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7311563.5%73 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x154b…4917backed No50c96.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.092142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…07f5backed No24c86.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Yes48c85.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.72326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Yes78c77.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.271560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b5…a762backed Yes52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed Yes59c75.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes49c75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No50c74.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.319446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No49c74.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ec…ba9fbacked Yes67c72.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No50c72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf292…b60cbacked Yes44c71.91$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+127.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Yes57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.183930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f4…9db5backed Yes59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a76…51b7backed No41c63.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266050%30 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf18…7a1abacked Yes57c57.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-41.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No48c57.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.463868.4%26 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.611250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked No45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255056%28 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked No23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52015%3 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.