Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378eabf1723efe4960a746cfebaebf6e69ce4cb74760b41943565dc3dcfcb22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 3,907$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,430$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 22c | 1,250$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Yes | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 79c | 798.2$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 79c | 700$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…d0c4backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 22c | 559.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 409$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…4015backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 10c | 315.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 21c | 271.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 22c | 252$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 80c | 213.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Yes | 7c | 205.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…5e8fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 6c | 180.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…5c06backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…4035backed Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…5677backed Yes | 24c | 164.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 76c | 164.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 154.43$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…0a65backed Yes | 23c | 132.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 129.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…66b0backed Yes | 12c | 126.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…3735backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…bb37backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 16c | 123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 122.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…0e91backed Yes | 19c | 105.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 77c | 92.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed Yes | 17c | 83.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…d6bcbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 22c | 68.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ba41backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…6c62backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 63.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…349cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 76c | 50.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 21c | 48.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 76c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked No | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.