Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31d575f51e239f6283fb6059575e7f13c6d059d18ada01282539311e3fbb962d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 68c | 5,048$3,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.88 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 2,337$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 20c | 2,138$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.64 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 71c | 1,024$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 891.24$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.42 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 29c | 765.52$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…b3c6backed Yes | 12c | 583.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 69c | 473$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 361.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 15c | 260.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 249.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 25c | 241.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2a…b6efbacked Yes | 30c | 222.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 188.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 72c | 179.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 102.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 80c | 100.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…5e8fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…fe2bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 27c | 71.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…0a65backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 27c | 50.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…5bc5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 32c | 39.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 37.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.