CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a4b0335fed69543eeb328d203591eb99587acd1b5107d254a387a7a5a03858e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 23c | 7,677$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.93 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 77c | 5,464$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.49 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 53c | 5,217$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.8 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed Over | 46c | 3,900$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…4e9ebacked Under | 54c | 2,461$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 71c | 2,437$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.63 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5e22backed Over | 47c | 2,116$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Over | 47c | 2,031$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…1cd9backed Under | 61c | 1,577$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.89 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.16 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 239 | 32.2%77 W · 162 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 5c | 1,441$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 15c | 1,119$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.87 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over | 23c | 872.53$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.09 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…12e9backed Over | 47c | 862$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Under | 79c | 627.5$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 1,256 | 46.7%587 W · 669 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 40c | 541.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Over | 52c | 500$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Under | 57c | 391.72$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 134 | 60.4%81 W · 53 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…d974backed Over | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | -18.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Under | 60c | 305$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Under | 73c | 255.56$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…ef47backed Over | 45c | 255.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…fb87backed Over | 45c | 224.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 209.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 67c | 208$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 57c | 202.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…a4f8backed Over | 50c | 201.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 30c | 197.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…6b0abacked Under | 64c | 187.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Under | 54c | 164.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…79a0backed Over | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed Under | 59c | 145.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…5231backed Under | 54c | 136.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…5050backed Over | 46c | 131.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa4…9f20backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Over | 44c | 123.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Over | 41c | 122$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…d4f1backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…e2cdbacked Under | 73c | 110.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 41c | 105.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Under | 61c | 98.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Over | 23c | 97.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…1e7abacked Under | 61c | 82.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…a004backed Over | 27c | 74.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Under | 59c | 74.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…644ebacked Under | 59c | 71.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…bacfbacked Over | 26c | 70.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 24c | 68.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -87%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Over | 24c | 68.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…87b0backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…bcc3backed Over | 43c | 65.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…e21bbacked Under | 59c | 58.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…79a8backed Under | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Under | 56c | 56.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 47c | 54.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Under | 56c | 53.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…972bbacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…5bedbacked Under | 78c | 51.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…17c3backed Over | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Over | 48c | 47.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 41c | 41.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9674…1302backed Under | 60c | 41.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…2ac1backed Over | 49c | 40.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…66afbacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 38.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…990abacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…cff9backed Over | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…fe2bbacked Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…e3d9backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217b…a587backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 56c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…984dbacked Under | 67c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…3e99backed Under | 78c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3)Vitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.