Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2dabbbe8a0dcf359c43da6cf686942a59eba2fdac6aaa2dd72eaf320889eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 70c | 720$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 34c | 548.76$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 30c | 546$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Over | 68c | 517.37$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 40c | 497.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Under | 32c | 375.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 64c | 315.69$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 199.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 59c | 148.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 68c | 148.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…510ebacked Over | 68c | 95.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed Under | 27c | 79.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Under | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Over | 61c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1b…a22fbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 66c | 15.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.