NBA · resolved market
Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74374c38d5ff445a83594e2bc81aa42ecf08889936a75d580fefa575dcba6cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 23c | 5,709$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,396.06 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 77c | 4,682$3,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,584.2 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072d…0d35backed Yes | 26c | 4,300$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 74c | 4,175$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 57c | 3,934$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.74 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed No | 4c | 3,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +428%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…71c9backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked No | 43c | 1,668$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.73 | 285 | 54%154 W · 131 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…512fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,347$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 33c | 1,293$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed No | 5c | 1,100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 848.54$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.38 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 65c | 823.57$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.87 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…05c1backed No | 10c | 803.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 13cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 25c | 710$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.5 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 52c | 613.53$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.53 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 35c | 540.49$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.78 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 37c | 536.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.47 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed No | 30c | 500$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 78c | 467.15$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.38 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…33b0backed Yes | 45c | 442.38$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1006…e0e0backed Yes | 51c | 438.07$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…0122backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 56c | 391.18$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.39 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed No | 77c | 379.41$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.15 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Yes | 29c | 345.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 60c | 329.12$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.47 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 59c | 299.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 37c | 289.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 14c | 283.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 38c | 250.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed No | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 282 | 49.6%140 W · 142 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…b834backed Yes | 28c | 170$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…5a90backed Yes | 30c | 164.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…ce8bbacked Yes | 34c | 142.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1454…b79abacked Yes | 29c | 139.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed No | 73c | 137.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1159backed Yes | 28c | 126.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 45c | 107.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked Yes | 24c | 105.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 102.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…8395backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 46c | 91.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…799ebacked Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 177 | 42.4%75 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 78.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 27c | 78.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…a8efbacked Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 140 | 32.9%46 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…7a1fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 183 | 37.2%68 W · 115 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 71.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed Yes | 29c | 69.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f0…ed29backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked No | 74c | 40.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…225dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 73c | 38.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 71c | 34.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x485b…4ce6backed No | 78c | 30.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…f848backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 53c | 22.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?this page
- Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
- Will Jase Richardson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
- Will Jaxson Hayes win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.