NBA · resolved market
Will Jaxson Hayes win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc440be2b53595bc3ead5d808a51e801c74a3f78bb0e995f1403941cad5fe660d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf494…225dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,066$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 19c | 1,234$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.82 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,066$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…94a4backed Yes | 21c | 767.28$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…57cdbacked No | 78c | 637.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Yes | 20c | 250.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 22c | 249.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 244.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Yes | 25c | 197.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 136.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 75c | 111.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…36edbacked No | 79c | 95.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 68c | 86.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed No | 65c | 77.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b7…9d21backed Yes | 24c | 49.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…5fdbbacked Yes | 25c | 45.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…6d0abacked Yes | 25c | 40.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…14c1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jaxson Hayes win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?this page
- Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
- Will Jase Richardson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
- Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.