NBA · resolved market
Will Jase Richardson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ad41a793e4dccefbf37bc56029e802d9814c7cf1d4bc24881a40104b53db8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc810…512fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…71c9backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…c4b9backed Yes | 24c | 1,916$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 76c | 921$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.04 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 656.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 552.16$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 19c | 274.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 147.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1454…b79abacked Yes | 15c | 124.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…c2adbacked Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…fa57backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…ecd6backed Yes | 22c | 89.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…86f1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jase Richardson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?this page
- Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
- Will Jaxson Hayes win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?No won
- Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.