NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb538ab197df44e55801c2af79a53103eda61a3865605dabde1c205d6160b8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 15,685$6,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,877.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Over | 57c | 10,334$5,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420.18 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 57c | 8,159$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,508.25 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 43c | 7,200$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 52c | 834.19$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.51 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…e5d8backed Over | 54c | 703.7$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.7 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Over | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 551.72$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 543$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.06 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…db64backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 245$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…2c4ebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 54c | 184.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 144$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Over | 52c | 128.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…b227backed Over | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Over | 55c | 66.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 44c | 63.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 54c | 56.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 57c | 52.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 44c | 41.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…680ebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…17abbacked Over | 55c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd1…8f31backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 252 | 47.2%119 W · 133 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5this page
- Pistons vs. BucksPistons won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.